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A method for evaluating cognitively informed micro-targeted campaign strategies: An agent-based model proof of
Jens Koed Madsen1, Toby D Pilditch2
1School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Plos One
|April 11, 2018
Summary
Micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) leverage voter psychology for efficiency. Even disliked MTC candidates can outperform broadly liked ones, raising regulatory questions.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Computational Social Science
- Cognitive Psychology
Background:
- Candidate credibility significantly impacts political message persuasiveness.
- Micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs), utilizing psychological profiles, are increasingly common in political messaging.
- The comparative effectiveness of MTCs versus population-targeted strategies requires further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the effectiveness of micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) compared to traditional population-targeted strategies.
- To explore the societal implications of psychologically informed political campaigning.
- To introduce a novel agent-based modeling framework for analyzing political campaign dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an agent-based model to simulate political campaign dynamics.
- Integrated recent cognitive models of persuasion into a societal-level framework.
- Analyzed campaign outcomes based on voter psychology and targeting strategies.
Main Results:
- MTCs effectively exploit voter psychology by targeting favorably disposed individuals.
- MTCs offer efficient and adaptive campaign management compared to broad campaigning.
- Simulations indicate that disliked candidates employing MTCs can defeat liked candidates using population-targeting.
Conclusions:
- MTCs present a potentially more effective, albeit psychologically manipulative, campaign approach.
- The findings highlight the need for societal discussions regarding the regulation of MTCs.
- The study provides a psychologically informed computational framework for understanding political campaigning.
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