Stratifying Mortality in a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Waiting List: A Brazilian Single-Center Study

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) system reliably predicts mortality in cirrhotic patients. However, the etiology of liver disease and presence of portal vein thrombosis are not directly taken into account in MELD score. Its impact on the outcomes of patients on the waiting list is still unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality and access to transplantation regarding etiology of liver disease and portal vein thrombosis (PVT).

A total of 465 adult patients on the liver waiting list from August 2015 to August 2016 were followed up until August 2017. Patients were divided into groups according to the etiology of liver disease and presence of PVT.

The most frequent etiologies were hepatitis C (26.88%), alcoholic cirrhosis (26.02%) and cryptogenic cirrhosis (10.75%). Death while on the waiting list occurred in 168 patients (36.1%) and was more frequent in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH, 65.4%) and alcoholic cirrhosis (41.3%). A total of 142 (30.5%) patients underwent transplantation and viral, autoimmune, and biliary diseases showed higher proportion of transplantation (36.3%, 53.8%, and 34%, respectively; P < .01). Mean delta-MELD at the study endpoint was higher in patients with autoimmune hepatitis, biliary diseases, and NASH (8.3 ± 7.2, 8.3 ± 9.1, and 7.5 ± 9.1, respectively; P < .01). A total 77 patients (16.7%) presented PVT. There was no significant difference in outcomes between patients with and without PVT.

Patients with NASH and alcoholic liver disease had higher mortality while on the waiting list, whereas patients with viral and autoimmune hepatitis had higher transplantation rate. Outcomes were not influenced by PVT.