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Using surveillance data to simulate the impact of a hypothetical pre-entry tuberculosis screening programme in Japan
L Kawatsu1, K Uchimura1, K Izumi1
1Research Institute of Tuberculosis, Japan Anti-Tuberculosis Association (RIT/JATA), Tokyo, Japan.
Implementing pre-entry tuberculosis (TB) screening for foreign-born individuals entering Japan could significantly reduce the TB burden. Scenario A, screening all long-term stay applicants, offers the greatest impact in detecting TB cases.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology
- Immigration Health
Background:
- Japan faces a growing number of tuberculosis (TB) cases among foreign-born individuals.
- Currently, Japan lacks a pre-entry TB screening program for foreign entrants.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the potential impact of a hypothetical pre-entry TB screening program for new foreign entrants to Japan.
- To estimate the number of prevalent TB cases and the yield of screening under different program scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized publicly available data to estimate prevalent TB cases in 2015 among foreign entrants.
- Modeled a pre-entry TB screening program with three distinct scenarios based on visa types and intended stay duration.
- Calculated the yield of detected TB cases per 100,000 screened individuals for each scenario.
Main Results:
- Scenario A (all applicants staying >3 months) estimated 492 prevalent TB cases, detecting 276.
- Scenario B (settlement visa applicants) identified the highest yield (134.5/100,000) with 54 cases.
- Scenario C (student/technical intern visa applicants) estimated 248 cases, detecting 137.
Conclusions:
- While Scenario B offered the highest screening yield, Scenario A demonstrated the greatest overall impact.
- A comprehensive pre-entry screening program (Scenario A) is most effective in reducing the burden of foreign-born TB in Japan.
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