Predictive Factors for Withdrawal from Peritoneal Dialysis: A Retrospective Cohort Study at Two Centers in Japan

Peritoneal dialysis (PD) is recognized as an excellent method of dialysis because the therapy is gentle, continuous, and cost-effective. However, a large number of patients must unfortunately transfer from PD to hemodialysis because of peritonitis or fluid overload in the early phase after PD initiation. In the present study, we reviewed clinical indicators before PD initiation to try to identify predictive factors for early withdrawal from PD.For this retrospective cohort study at two hospitals between March 2003 and October 2016, we defined withdrawal from PD as the induction of combination therapy, transfer to hemodialysis, or death. Data about clinical indicators before PD induction-namely age, sex, presence of diabetes mellitus, past history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), body mass index, primary kidney disease, and blood biochemistry-were collected from medical records. The primary outcome was duration of PD until withdrawal.We analyzed 151 PD patients (median age: 62.5 years; 94 men; 74 with diabetes mellitus; median duration of PD: 30.2 months). Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that the hazard ratio (HR) for withdrawal was 1.08 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04 to 1.12; p < 0.001] per 1 mg/L increase in β₂-microglobulin (β₂MG), 0.65 (95% CI: 0.46 to 0.93; p = 0.02) per 1 g/dL decrease in serum albumin, and 1.07 (95% CI: 1.02 to 1.11; p = 0.01) per 1 g per gram creatinine increase in daily urinary protein excretion. Using multivariate Cox regression analysis, β₂MG (HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.12; p < 0.001) and past history of CVD (HR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.13; p = 0.04) were factors predictive for withdrawal from PD. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the technique survival rate was significantly different in the two groups defined as having a serum β₂MG level above or below the measured median (p = 0.047).Serum β₂MG at PD initiation and past history of CVD are high-risk factors for withdrawal from PD. Special focus should be placed on the care and management of patients found to have a high risk of withdrawal at the time of PD induction.