Childhood obesity: how long should we wait to predict weight?

Obesity is highly prevalent in children under the age of 5 years, although its identification in infants under 2 years remains difficult. Several clinical prediction models have been developed for obesity risk in early childhood, using a number of different predictors. The predictive capacity (sensitivity and specificity) of these models varies greatly, and there is no agreed risk threshold for the prediction of early childhood obesity. Of the existing models, only two have been practically utilized, but neither have been particularly successful. This commentary suggests how future research may successfully utilize existing early childhood obesity prediction models for intervention. We also consider the need for such models, and how targeted obesity intervention may be more effective than population-based intervention.