[Optimum population analysis of Jilin Province, China based on comprehensive carrying capacity.]

The regional moderate population model was constructed using state-space method, and the weights of relevant factors were obtained using principal component analysis. The optimum population of Jilin Province during 2005-2014 was calculated and the causes for its formation were discussed. The results showed that the optimum population of Jilin Province was in deficit from 2005-2014, and the imbalance existed between the population, resources and environment. The resources carrying population was significantly higher than the economic carrying and the ecological carrying population, indicating that the economic development of Jilin Province was established at the expense of destroying the environment. Moreover, the land resources carrying population was substantially higher than the water and energy carrying population, which was at a deficit, indicating that the economic development of Jilin Province was based on the depletion of energy and water resources. In the future, water resources carrying capacity should be improved according to the local conditions, the energy efficiency should be enhanced via the development of new energy sources, the extensive and consumption-based resource utilization should be transformed to the intensive and low-carbon type, and the production mode and consumption patterns should be changed to protect the ecological environment.