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Updated: Jul 27, 2026

Assessment of Child Anthropometry in a Large Epidemiologic Study
Published on: February 2, 2017
Identification of Children's BMI Trajectories and Prediction from Weight Gain in Infancy
Anne Bichteler1, Elizabeth T Gershoff1
1Department of Human Development and Family Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA.
Insights
Infant weight gain, not just birth weight, predicts childhood BMI trajectories. Early rapid weight gain increases the risk for higher BMI, especially in African American children.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Health
- Growth and Development
- Public Health
Background:
- Childhood obesity is a growing concern with complex developmental pathways.
- Understanding Body Mass Index (BMI) trajectories from infancy through adolescence is crucial for early intervention.
- Early life factors significantly influence long-term health outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify distinct Body Mass Index (BMI) change patterns during childhood (24 months to 13 years).
- To determine if demographic factors, birth weight, and infant weight gain predict these BMI trajectories.
- To develop risk algorithms for identifying children at risk for specific BMI patterns.
Main Methods:
- Utilized longitudinal data from the Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (N=1364).
- Employed latent growth modeling to analyze BMI change trajectories across multiple time points.
- Used logistic regression to predict trajectory class membership based on early life factors.
Main Results:
- Identified distinct BMI trajectory groups, with 'high-rising' and 'low-to-high' groups exhibiting the highest BMI in middle childhood.
- Birth weight and infant weight gain were significant predictors of BMI trajectory membership, outperforming gender and race/ethnicity.
- Infant weight gain independently predicted high-rising BMI trajectories, even after accounting for birth weight.
- African American children showed lower birth weight, faster infant weight gain, and increased odds of belonging to rising BMI trajectories.
Conclusions:
- Clinicians should monitor infant weight gain independently of birth weight to identify potential risks.
- Further research is needed to understand the long-term physiological impacts of rapid early-life weight gain.
- Early identification of rapid infant weight gain can inform interventions to mitigate risks for childhood obesity.
Objective:
The goal of this study was to identify patterns of BMI changes across childhood (ages 24 months to 13 years) and to assess whether demographic characteristics, birth weight, and percent infant weight gain from birth to 15 months predicted BMI patterns.
Methods:
Eleven waves of data from the Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development were used. Trained technicians assessed children's weight at birth and 10 times from 15 months to eighth grade (N = 1364). Latent growth modeling was used to estimate BMI change trajectories, and logistic regression was used to predict membership in trajectory classes.
Results:
Children in the high-rising and low-to-high BMI patterns had the highest BMI of all trajectory groups during middle childhood. Birth weight and infant weight gain were stronger predictors of trajectory membership than gender or race/ethnicity. Infant weight gain predicted high-rising membership over and above the effect of birth weight. African American children had lower birth weight, faster infant weight increase, and higher odds of being in one of the rising trajectories. Risk algorithms are provided.
Conclusions:
Clinicians should monitor weight gain during infancy independent of birth weight. Researchers should continue investigating the lasting physiological effects of early rapid weight gain in infancy.
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