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National Center for Health Statistics Guidelines for Analysis of Trends
Summary
Analyzing trends in health statistics requires careful consideration of analytic choices. This report offers guidelines for National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data trend analysis to ensure accurate conclusions.
Area of Science:
- Biostatistics
- Public Health Surveillance
- Epidemiology
Background:
- National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) surveys and National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) data are frequently used for time trend analyses.
- Analytic choices in trend analysis can significantly impact study conclusions.
- Standardized guidelines are needed for robust trend analysis of health data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To discuss critical issues in conducting time trend analyses using NCHS data.
- To provide practical guidelines for making informed analytic choices in trend analysis.
- To enhance the reliability and interpretability of health trend findings.
Main Methods:
- Discussion of key trend analysis considerations: time point selection, data types (survey vs. vital records), and general analytic approaches.
- Detailed examination of specific issues including joinpoint regression.
- Presentation of 12 guidelines for trend analysis, supported by examples and statistical details.
Main Results:
- Identified multiple analytic choices that influence time trend analysis outcomes.
- Provided practical examples using both NCHS survey and vital records data.
- Included SAS and SUDAAN code for implementing joinpoint regression models.
Conclusions:
- Analytic choices in trend analysis significantly affect results; guidelines are essential for consistency.
- The report offers a framework for making sound decisions in health data trend analysis.
- The principles discussed are applicable beyond time trend analysis to other variable types.
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