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Updated: Feb 10, 2026

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Published on: March 5, 2020
An Etiological Approach to Sexual Offender Assessment: CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA)
Leam A Craig1,2,3, Martin Rettenberger4,5
1Forensic Psychology Practice Ltd, Birmingham, UK. leamcraig@forensicpsychology.co.uk.
This study introduces the CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA) model, integrating case formulations with risk assessment for sexual offenders. CAFIRA enhances understanding and management of sexually abusive behaviors by linking etiology to effective risk assessment.
Area of Science:
- Forensic Psychology
- Clinical Psychology
- Criminology
Background:
- Case formulations (CF) are essential in clinical psychology and forensic assessment.
- CFs are increasingly relevant for offenders with trauma, personality disorders, and sexually abusive behaviors.
- Jurisdictions require individualized risk assessment integrated into broader problem behavior formulation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To focus on case formulations incorporating risk assessment procedures for sexual offenders.
- To argue for the integration of risk formulations into CFs for a robust link between etiology and management.
- To present an etiological framework for understanding risk in sexual offenders using an integrated model.
Main Methods:
- Integrating a case formulation model with risk assessment procedures.
- Incorporating static, stable, and acute actuarial and clinical risk assessment measures.
- Including protective risk factors within the CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA) model.
Main Results:
- Limited empirical support exists for general risk analysis in offending behavior.
- Growing evidence suggests CF improves understanding of problem sexual behaviors.
- Integrating risk formulations into CFs provides a strong link between behavior development and offender management.
Conclusions:
- The use of CFs is indispensable in the assessment, treatment, and management of sexual offenders.
- The CAFIRA model offers an etiological framework for understanding individual sexual offender risk.
- Strength-based approaches in forensic treatment necessitate integrated CF and risk assessment.
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