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Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present-Day and Climate Change

Gabriel J Kooperman1, Michael S Pritchard2, Travis A O'Brien3,4

  • 1Department of Geography University of Georgia Athens GA USA.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
|June 5, 2018
PubMed
Summary

Global climate models struggle to accurately simulate rainfall intensity, particularly moderate rain rates. Increasing model resolution improves total rainfall but not moderate rates, highlighting issues with convection parameterization.

Keywords:
climate changecommunity atmosphere modelconvective precipitationextreme precipitationlarge‐scale precipitationrainfall intensitysuperparameterization

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Climate Modeling
  • Meteorology

Background:

  • Global climate models (GCMs) exhibit deficiencies in parameterizing convection, leading to inaccurate rainfall intensity distributions.
  • Existing GCMs often simulate too much rainfall from weak rain rates, distorting precipitation patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the impact of increasing horizontal resolution on rainfall intensity simulation in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM).
  • To investigate the ability of CAM to realistically simulate moderate rain rates and their climate change intensification.
  • To differentiate the contributions of parameterized convection and large-scale resolved processes to total rainfall.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a statistical framework to analyze precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond simple frequency distributions.
  • Separated convective and large-scale resolved rainfall components within the CAM.
  • Compared CAM's large-scale rain rates with observations (TRMM 3B42) and superparameterization results.

Main Results:

  • Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution improved high percentile rainfall intensity but not moderate rain rates.
  • CAM failed to realistically simulate moderate rain rates and their intensification with climate change.
  • CAM's large-scale rain rates showed better agreement with observations and theory than parameterized convection.
  • Increasing resolution improved total rainfall intensity by increasing the relative contribution of large-scale rain, not by intensifying large-scale rain rates.

Conclusions:

  • Parameterization of convection remains a significant challenge for accurately simulating rainfall intensity distributions in GCMs.
  • Large-scale resolved processes play a crucial role in realistic rainfall simulation and climate change response.
  • Further development of scale-aware parameterizations is needed, considering the interplay between precipitation frequency and amount.