Validation of prognostic risk scores for patients undergoing resection for pancreatic cancer

A better stratification of patients into risk groups might help to select patients who might benefit from more aggressive therapy. The aim of this study was to validate five prognostic scores in patients resected for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

Included were 307 PDAC patients who underwent resection with curative intent. Five clinical risk scores were selected and applied to our study population. Survival analyses were carried out using univariate and multivariate proportional hazards regression.

Prognostic stratification was strong for the Heidelberg score (p < 0.001) and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram (p = 0.001) and moderate for the Botsis score (p = 0.033). There was no significant prognostic value for the Early Mortality Risk Score (p = 0.126) and McGill Brisbane Symptom Score (p = 0.133). Positive resection margin (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) and pain [pain (HR 1.40, CI 1.03-1.91), back pain (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.08-2.57)] were independent prognostic factors on multivariate analysis.

The Heidelberg score and MSKCC nomogram provided adequate risk stratification in our independent study cohort. Further studies in independent patient cohorts are required to achieve higher levels of validation.