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Relationship between landslides and mountain development-Integrating geospatial statistics and a new long-term
Yung-Chung Chuang1, Yi-Shiang Shiu1
1Department of the Urban Planning and Spatial Information, Feng Chia University, Taichung 407, Taiwan.
The Science of the Total Environment
|June 13, 2018
Summary
Human development in mountainous regions increases landslide risk, especially near historical deforestation and new roads. Cumulative historical events are key for future landslide prediction and mitigation efforts.
Area of Science:
- Geosciences
- Environmental Science
- Natural Hazard Research
Background:
- Mountainous regions face inevitable development due to high population densities.
- The precise relationship between development and landslide occurrence remains unclear.
- Understanding landslide triggers is vital for effective hazard prevention and mitigation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the historical factors contributing to landslides in the Shihmen Reservoir catchment, Taiwan.
- To analyze the correlation between human development and landslide incidence over time.
- To identify key variables for improving future landslide susceptibility models.
Main Methods:
- Utilized geodatabase and digital archives for data collection across five distinct years (1946, 1971, 2001, 2004, 2012).
- Employed proximity analysis and discrete logistic regression to assess landslide-related factors.
- Examined two combinations of explanatory variables to understand their influence.
Main Results:
- A significant increase in landslides was observed in the study area from 1946 to 2012.
- Proximity and overlap between human development and landslide occurrences grew over the study period.
- Logistic regression identified natural causes as primary landslide drivers, except for historical deforestation and new roads.
Conclusions:
- Past deforestation and the construction of new roads are significant factors influencing current landslide susceptibility.
- Areas with historically recovered woodlands may represent current landslide-prone zones.
- Incorporating cumulative historical events into analyses is recommended for enhanced landslide prediction.
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