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How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts.

Kris Wernstedt1,2, Patrick S Roberts3, Joseph Arvai4

  • 1Visiting Professor at Ardhi University, Tanzania.

Disasters
|June 13, 2018
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Emergency managers, critical in disaster response, make biased decisions influenced by forecast uncertainty. Understanding these cognitive shortcuts can improve flood preparedness and reduce losses.

Keywords:
cognitivedecision-makingemergency managementriskuncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Disaster Management
  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Meteorology

Background:

  • Emergency managers are vital for responding to weather-related hazards like floods.
  • The impact of forecast uncertainty on their decision-making is not well understood.
  • Effective disaster preparedness relies on understanding how uncertainty influences critical decisions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how emergency managers interpret and respond to uncertain forecast information.
  • To identify cognitive biases and decision shortcuts employed by emergency managers.
  • To explore factors influencing their choices in simulated disaster scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • A national survey of county emergency managers in the United States was conducted.
  • Hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios were used to simulate responses.
  • Analysis focused on how managers interpret probabilistic forecasts and outcome framing.

Main Results:

  • Emergency managers, regardless of experience, exhibit decision shortcuts and biases.
  • Choices are affected by the presentation format of probabilistic forecasts.
  • Framing of outcomes as gains or losses significantly influences decision-making.

Conclusions:

  • Cognitive biases impact emergency managers' interpretation of uncertain forecasts.
  • Forecast communication strategies should account for these decision-making processes.
  • Improved understanding can enhance flood preparation and mitigate disaster impacts.