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Uncertainty of Consumption-Based Carbon Accounts
João F D Rodrigues1, Daniel Moran2, Richard Wood2
1Institute of Environmental Sciences CML , Leiden University , Einsteinweg 2 , 2333 CC Leiden , Netherlands.
Environmental Science & Technology
|June 14, 2018
Summary
Uncertainty in consumption-based carbon accounts (CBCAs) ranges from 2-16%, driven by electricity sector data and Chinese national data. Ignoring data correlations significantly underestimates these uncertainties.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Economics
- Climate Science
Background:
- Consumption-based carbon accounts (CBCAs) are crucial for understanding climate responsibilities in global trade.
- Significant knowledge gaps exist regarding the uncertainties inherent in CBCAs.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify uncertainty in global CBCAs.
- To identify key drivers of uncertainty in CBCAs.
- To provide guidance for reducing uncertainty in multiregional input-output (MRIO) data.
Main Methods:
- Utilized five global multiregional input-output (MRIO) databases.
- Calibrated a stochastic multivariate model of the global economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
- Analyzed correlations between sector-level data across countries.
Main Results:
- Country-level CBCA uncertainty ranges from 2% to 16%.
- Uncertainty in emissions does not significantly decrease with emission size.
- Ignoring data correlations leads to systematic underestimation of uncertainties.
- Electricity sector data globally and Chinese national data are major contributors to uncertainty.
Conclusions:
- CBCAs and source MRIO tables show strong cross-country sector correlations.
- Understanding CBCA uncertainty is vital for accurate climate mitigation responsibility assessment.
- Prioritizing uncertainty reduction in specific data (e.g., electricity, China) is recommended for MRIO compilers.
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