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Transmission potential of modified measles during an outbreak, Japan, March‒May 2018

Kenji Mizumoto1,2, Tetsuro Kobayashi1,2, Gerardo Chowell1,3

  • 1Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, USA.

Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Europeen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin
|June 21, 2018
PubMed

Insights

Measles outbreaks can be complicated by modified measles cases with masked symptoms. Quantitative modeling revealed low detection rates for modified measles, necessitating targeted public health interventions to control spread.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Measles outbreaks pose a significant public health challenge.
  • Modified measles, resulting from insufficient vaccine-induced or prior infection immunity, presents atypical symptoms.
  • The 2018 Okinawa measles outbreak involved 33 cases, many with masked symptoms.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify and compare the transmission potential of classic measles versus modified measles.
  • To assess the ascertainment probability of modified measles cases during outbreaks.
  • To inform public health strategies for controlling measles outbreaks with modified cases.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized quantitative modeling techniques.
  • Analyzed transmission dynamics based on clinical presentation (classic vs. modified measles).
  • Estimated ascertainment probabilities for different measles presentations.

Main Results:

  • Modified measles cases exhibited significantly lower ascertainment probabilities compared to classic measles.
  • The transmission potential varied between classic and modified measles presentations.
  • Low detection rates highlight challenges in identifying and isolating modified measles cases.

Conclusions:

  • Modified measles cases are likely underascertained during outbreaks.
  • Public health interventions must be intensified and specifically tailored to detect and manage modified measles cases.
  • Enhanced strategies are crucial for effective containment of measles outbreaks involving atypical presentations.
Keywords:
Japanepidemicsmeaslesmodellingmodified measlesoutbreaktransmission potential

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