Unexpected outbreaks of arbovirus infections: lessons learned from the Pacific and tropical America

Pandemic arboviruses have emerged as a major global health problem in the past four decades. Predicting where and when the next arbovirus epidemic will occur is a challenge, but history suggests that arboviral black swan events (epidemics that are difficult to predict and that have an extreme effect) will continue to occur as urban growth and globalisation expand. We briefly review unexpected arbovirus epidemics that have occurred in the past 50 years, with emphasis on the American and Pacific regions, to illustrate their unpredictability, and to highlight the need for improved global preparedness, including laboratory-based surveillance, prevention, and control programmes.