Using simulation modelling to test the impact of future demand for end-of-life care

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Health Economics
• Healthcare Management

Background:

• Growing demand for palliative, hospice, and end-of-life care globally.
• Limited population-level tools for evaluating new care models' impact on policy, workforce, technology, and funding.
• Need for strategic planning tools in healthcare organizations.

Purpose of the Study:

• Introduce scenario-based "what if" thinking and discrete event simulation for strategic planning.
• Apply these methods in a not-for-profit hospice organization.
• Facilitate discussions on implementing integrated palliative and end-of-life care service models.

Main Methods:

• Scenario-based "what if" thinking.
• Discrete event simulation.
• Development of conceptual models for strategic partner discussions.

Main Results:

• Demonstrated application of simulation and scenario planning in hospice strategic planning.
• Provided a framework for discussing implications of new integrated care models.
• Facilitated exploration of policy, workforce, technology, and funding impacts.

Conclusions:

• Scenario-based "what if" thinking and discrete event simulation are valuable tools for strategic planning in hospice care.
• These methods can inform the implementation of new integrated palliative and end-of-life care models.
• The approach supports "cost avoidance" analysis and policy development.