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Published on: December 14, 2017
US nuclear power: The vanishing low-carbon wedge
M Granger Morgan1, Ahmed Abdulla2, Michael J Ford3
1Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213; granger.morgan@andrew.cmu.edu.
The United States may lose nuclear power, a crucial low-carbon energy source, within decades. Without policy changes, small modular reactors (SMRs) are unlikely to be deployed at scale to aid decarbonization efforts.
Area of Science:
- Energy policy
- Nuclear engineering
- Climate change mitigation
Background:
- Existing US nuclear power plants face economic challenges, impacting their viability.
- Large nuclear reactor construction is unlikely due to high costs and complexity.
- Advanced nuclear reactor designs are not expected to be commercialized before 2050.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the potential for nuclear power, specifically small modular reactors (SMRs), to contribute to US decarbonization.
- To investigate the development of a domestic market supporting SMR deployment.
- To identify barriers to SMR commercialization and deployment.
Main Methods:
- Systematic investigation of market development for SMRs.
- Analysis of the current policy environment's impact on nuclear power.
- Evaluation of advanced fission technologies and their commercialization timelines.
Main Results:
- No US advanced fission designs are projected for commercialization before mid-century.
- A convincing case for a domestic market supporting SMRs could not be established under current policy.
- The US risks losing a significant source of reliable, low-carbon nuclear energy.
Conclusions:
- Small modular reactors (SMRs) represent the only viable nuclear option for significant deployment in the near term.
- Policy changes are necessary to foster a market for SMRs and ensure nuclear power's role in decarbonization.
- Failure to address predictable issues could lead to the loss of nuclear power in the US, hindering climate goals.
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