Weight Mobility and Obesity in a Representative Sample of the US Adult Population

Despite the attention given to the prevalence of obesity, surprisingly little is known about the incidence or reduction of obesity. We report the 1-year incidence and remission of obesity in a representative sample of the US population.

Individuals from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) panel 17 were classified into standard obesity categories at enrollment and one year later. Incidence rates were calculated by age.

Although the overall prevalence of obesity remained nearly constant, remission rates from obesity (stratified by age) ranged from 11 to 27% while incidence rates ranged from 6 to 16%. For almost all age levels, the proportion of individuals leaving an obese or overweight state was greater than or equal to the proportion who progressed to a more severe level of overweight or obesity. Overall, 36% of adults lost at least 2.5 kg/m² in the one-year period; only 8% gained 2.5 kg/m² or more. Individuals less than 25 years of age had higher rates of leaving overweight (23% versus <16%) and obesity (27% versus 24%) classifications than people of other ages.

Prevalence rates of obesity are well documented in the United States, but incidence is understudied. Public health efforts that target young people with overweight or obesity may yield the greatest benefit.