[Economic evaluation and prediction of hepatitis B immunization strategy in Shenzhen, China]

Objective: To verify the costs, benefit and effectiveness of hepatitis B immunoprophylaxis strategies in Shenzhen during 2006-2030. Methods: The markov model was constructed to reflect the reality of the newborn vaccination and prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) strategy, the cost, benefit and effectiveness during 2006-2015 and 2016-2030 was evaluated and predicted by the model. The model was constructed with the basic parameters such as the positive rate of hepatitis B surface antibody, perinatal HBV infection rate, the screening rate and positive rate of HBsAg of pregnant women, the utility value of hepatitis B and the parameters of markov model. and the coverage rates, vaccination fee of hepatitis B and the expenditures of patients with HB-related diseases.The costs were calculated from the payer, medical-care and all society perspective. The effectiveness and benefits of the strategy were evaluated and predicted by the numbers of HBV infection and the patients with HBV-related diseases prevented, life years (LYs), quality adjusted life years (QALYs), the net benefits (NBs) and benefit cost ratio (BCRs). Results: From the payer, medical-care and all society perspectives, the costs for the strategy were 153 million Yuan, 5.51 billion Yuan and 10.92 billion Yuan, respectively from 2006 to 2030 of which the forecast costs for 2016-2030 were 120 million Yuan, 3.87 billion yuan and 7.81 billion yuan. During the year 2006-2030, the numbers of HBV infection and the HBV-related diseases was 2.48 million, more than 1.335 million LYs and 1.619 million QALYs should be obtained from the strategy implemented. From medical-care and all society perspectives, NBs should be 88.68 billion yuan and 150.13 billion yuan with the BCRs of 17.08 and 14.75, respectively. Particularly, the NBs value of 22.37 billion yuan and 37.98 billion yuan and the BCR value of 14.62 and 13.20 was calculated for the past period, but the future NBs of 66.31 billion yuan and 112.15 billion yuan and BCR of 18.12 and 15.36 in the year 2016-2030. The further benefits were increased evidently in the future. Conclusion: The hepatitis B immunization in Shenzhen has a high economic effectivenee and benefits, and it is worth to invest sustainably.