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The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences
Gabriele C Hegerl1, Stefan Brönnimann2,3, Andrew Schurer1
1School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK.
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change
|July 17, 2018
Summary
The Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW) saw significant global temperature increases, driven by both human activities and natural variability. Understanding ETCW is crucial for predicting future climate change impacts and distinguishing natural cycles from anthropogenic influences.
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimates and Current Trends
- Modern Climate Change
Background:
- The Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW) represents a significant period of global warming before recent climate change.
- Understanding ETCW is vital for differentiating decadal variability from human influences on climate.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review observed changes during the ETCW.
- To explore hypotheses for the causes and mechanisms behind ETCW and subsequent warming slowdown.
- To examine the role of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing in ETCW and associated extreme weather events.
Main Methods:
- Review of historical global climate records.
- Analysis of attribution studies estimating the contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and natural forcing.
- Examination of extreme weather events during the ETCW period.
Main Results:
- Attribution studies suggest 40-54% of 1901-1950 global warming was forced by greenhouse gases and natural forcing, partially offset by aerosols.
- Natural variability played a substantial role, particularly in regional warming like the Arctic.
- The ETCW period coincided with notable extreme events, including droughts and heatwaves across multiple continents.
Conclusions:
- Both anthropogenic factors and natural variability significantly influenced the Early Twentieth Century Warming.
- Understanding ETCW mechanisms is critical for improving climate change models and predicting future impacts.
- Further research into the links between large-scale forcing and extreme events during ETCW is necessary.
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