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Summary
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Tracking extreme rainfall paths during typhoon season (August-November) is more predictable. This study uses complex networks and a radial rank method to show rainfall tracks align with typhoon movement, aiding future forecasting.

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
  • Complex Systems and Network Theory
  • Geophysics and Climatology

Background:

  • Accurately reconciling extreme rainfall patterns with typhoon trajectories is a persistent challenge in meteorological forecasting.
  • Existing complex network methods, like event synchronization, can track heavy rainfall but may obscure contributions from localized convective storms.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a novel radial rank method to objectively track extreme rainfall paths over Japan.
  • To investigate the relationship between typhoon tracks, rainfall patterns, and geographical features during the typhoon season (August-November).

Main Methods:

  • Utilized complex networks and event synchronization to analyze extreme rainfall data over the Japanese islands.
  • Introduced a radial rank method to delineate and analyze the spatial distribution and directional movement of extreme rainfall events.
  • Compared rainfall track characteristics between the typhoon season (August-November) and the westerly-fed frontal storm season (June-July).

Main Results:

  • Extreme rainfall paths during the typhoon season (August-November) predominantly follow the southwest-northeast typhoon motion and Japan's mean rainfall gradient.
  • The radial rank method revealed that typhoon eye tracks can deviate significantly from rainfall tracks, potentially skewing rainfall estimations.
  • Rainfall tracks exhibit lower spatial spread during the August-November typhoon season compared to the June-July frontal storm season.

Conclusions:

  • The alignment of extreme rainfall with typhoon movement during the August-November season suggests a more constrained and predictable system.
  • The findings indicate that the reduced variability in rainfall tracks during the typhoon season offers improved potential for hindcasting compared to westerly-fed frontal storms.