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Bitcoin market route to maturity? Evidence from return fluctuations, temporal correlations and multiscaling effects
Stanisław Drożdż1, Robert Gȩbarowski2, Ludovico Minati1
1Complex Systems Theory Department, Institute of Nuclear Physics Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Radzikowskiego 152, 31-342 Kraków, Poland.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|August 3, 2018
Summary
Bitcoin
Area of Science:
- Quantitative Finance
- Computational Economics
- Market Dynamics
Background:
- The Bitcoin market has experienced rapid growth since 2012.
- Understanding cryptocurrency market maturation is crucial for financial analysis.
- High-frequency trading data offers unique insights into market evolution.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the fluctuation properties of the Bitcoin market.
- To compare Bitcoin's market characteristics to mature financial markets.
- To determine if the Bitcoin market is approaching maturity.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 1-minute price changes from 2012 to April 2018.
- Examination of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst exponents, and multiscaling effects.
- Comparison of statistical indicators with established market data.
Main Results:
- Early Bitcoin trading showed system-specific irregularities.
- By April 2018, key statistical indicators aligned with mature market features.
- The Bitcoin market exhibits characteristics indicative of maturation.
Conclusions:
- The Bitcoin market demonstrates significant maturation, approaching features of traditional financial markets.
- Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin show potential to become viable alternatives to foreign exchange markets.
- Bitcoin's high-frequency data provides a valuable case study for market maturation dynamics.
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