Development and validation of a risk-prediction nomogram for patients with ureteral calculi associated with...

To develop and validate an individualized nomogram to predict probability of patients with ureteral calculi developing into urosepsis.

The clinical data of 747 patients with ureteral calculi who were admitted from June 2013 to December 2015 in Affiliated Nanhai Hospital of Southern Medical University were selected and included in the development group, while 317 ureteral calculi patients who were admitted from January 2016 to December 2016 were included in the validation group. The independent risk factors of ureteral calculi associated with urosepsis were screened using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The corresponding nomogram prediction model was drawn according to the regression coefficients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves and the GiViTI calibration belts were used to estimate the discrimination and calibration of the prediction model, respectively.

Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the five risk factors of gender, mean computed tomography(CT) attenuation value of hydronephrosis, functional solitary kidney, urine white blood cell(WBC) count and urine nitrite were independent risk factors of ureteral calculi associated with urosepsis. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the development group and validation group were 0.913 and 0.874 respectively, suggesting that the new prediction model had good discrimination capacity. P-values of the GiViTI calibration test of the two groups were 0.247 and 0.176 respectively, and the 95% CIs of GiViTI calibration belt in both groups did not cross the diagonal bisector line. Therefore the predicted probability of the model was consistent with the actual probability which suggested that the calibration of the prediction model in both groups were perfect and prediction model had strong concordance performance.

The individualized prediction model for patients with ureteral calculi can facilitate improved screening and early identification of patients having higher risk of urosepsis.