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How should economists model climate? Tipping points and nonlinear dynamics of carbon dioxide concentrations
Jean-Paul Chavas1, Corbett Grainger1, Nicholas Hudson1
1University of Wisconsin, Madison, United States.
Abstract:
Economists modeling climate policy face an array of choices when modeling climate change, including the role of uncertainty/ambiguity, irreversibility, and tipping points. After filtering out estimated cycles due to orbital climate forcing, we use a threshold quantile autoregressive model to characterize anomalies in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We then test for local instability and tipping points, and we characterize the stationary distribution of anomalies. We find evidence of nonlinear dynamics, tipping points and a non-normal stationary distribution.
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