Predicting the success of minority students in a baccalaureate nursing program

Entering grade point average (ENTGPA), American College Test Assessment (ACT), high school rank (HSRANK), high school GPA (HSGPA), number of college credit hours prior to program admission (HRSPTA), age at admission, and an index of applicant motivation and related experience (MEP) were investigated to determine the best predictive combination of variables for success among minorities in a baccalaureate nursing program. Final GPA, program completion, and State Board Examination (SBTPE) performance were used as indicators of success. Minority students (N = 145) admitted between 1971-1981 were identified by record review. Two minority subgroups, blacks (n = 111) and nonblack minorities (n = 34) were compared using multiple regression and discriminant analysis procedures. ACT was the strongest, most consistent predictor of SBTPE performance and final GPA for all minorities. ENTGPA and ACT provided substantial predictive power for both subgroups, but explained markedly less variance for blacks. HSGPA, HRSPTA, and HSRANK explained some variance differently by subgroup. ENTGPA provided the only discrimination between graduates and dropouts. Cognitive attributes are critical to academic success among minorities, although predictors may vary in explanatory power by minority group. Variables interfering with program completion need to be explored.