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Updated: Feb 6, 2026

Method and Instrumented Fixture for Femoral Fracture Testing in a Sideways Fall-on-the-Hip Position
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Forecasting Postflight Hip Fracture Probability Using Probabilistic Modeling.

Beth E Lewandowski1, Jerry G Myers1

  • 1NASA John H. Glenn Research Center,Low-gravity Exploration Technology Branch,Cleveland, OH 44135.

Journal of Biomechanical Engineering
|August 22, 2018
PubMed
Summary

Astronauts face increased hip fracture risk after spaceflight due to bone density loss. Improved countermeasures and fitness standards can mitigate this risk, ensuring crew safety.

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Area of Science:

  • Biomechanics
  • Space Medicine
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • Spaceflight causes bone mineral density (BMD) loss, potentially increasing fracture risk in astronauts.
  • Assessing postflight hip fracture probability is crucial for astronaut health and mission safety.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a probabilistic model for predicting astronaut hip fracture probability after spaceflight.
  • To quantify the impact of spaceflight-induced bone loss on fracture risk.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures and inform fitness-for-duty standards.

Main Methods:

  • A biomechanical hip model was used to determine impact loads.
  • Correlations between BMD loss/recovery and bone strength (BS) were established.
  • Monte Carlo simulations quantified fracture probability using fracture risk index (FRI).

Main Results:

  • Postflight hip fracture probability is elevated compared to preflight, even with improved countermeasures.
  • A 1m fall 0 days postflight shows a 15% increase in fracture probability, decreasing to 6% at 365 days.
  • Lower preflight BMD significantly elevates fracture probability, highlighting the need for stringent BMD standards.

Conclusions:

  • Spaceflight-induced BMD loss increases astronaut hip fracture probability.
  • Exercise countermeasures and dietary intake can reduce, but not eliminate, this increased risk.
  • Quantified fracture risk aids in establishing astronaut fitness-for-duty standards and modifying safety limits for crew vehicles.