Cancer Incidence Patterns in the Oldest Ages Using Expanded Age Categories from SEER Registry Data and the 2010...

As older age groups continue to account for an increasing portion of the US population, the burden of cancer and other age-associated disease becomes a larger public health concern. Due to limited population data, however, disease surveillance statistics are typically truncated at age 84 years and then grouped into a terminal age category of ≥85 years. We used more detailed older age data from the 2010 census in conjunction with Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry records for 2008-2012 diagnoses to estimate 5-year age-specific incidence rates through ages 90-94 years and ≥95 years for major cancers. Overall cancer rates increased to a maximum in the 80-89-year ranges and subsequently declined. Incidence rates peaked in younger age groups for several specific cancers, including breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, and prostate. Whereas, rates for colon and rectum, leukemia, melanoma, pancreas, stomach, and urinary bladder continued to rise among men and women into their early 90s. Rates of liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer showed an initial spike among men aged 60-64 years followed by a larger peak at ages 80-84. Since these age-specific incidence patterns were based on cross-sectional data, they may vary over time for some cancers (eg, lung and liver) as the prevalence of major risk factors change across birth cohorts. Future studies using new, publicly available databases with these additional older age groups can examine cancer subtypes defined by our emerging understanding of molecular biomarkers. There is a need for accurate annual post-census population estimates for older age categories to enable continuous monitoring of disease dynamics among these rapidly growing population groups.