[Analysis of schistosomiasis prevalence in endemic areas using retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics]

To analyze the characteristics of schistosomasis prevalence by using the spatial epidemiological method, and test the application of retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics in determining mountainous and lake-type endemic areas of schistosomiasis.

The data of schistosomasis in humans, cattle and snails in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2014 and in Yunnan Province during 2004-2013 were collected and analyzed. The temporal and spatial distribution of schistosomiasis endemic areas in the two provinces was analyzed with retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics.

The prevalence of schistosomiasis in residents and Oncomelania snails showed a trend of decline in Jiangxi, from 0.21% and 0.03% in 2009 to 0.01% and zero in 2014. A similar trend was found in cattle, from 1.25% in 2012 to 0.12% in 2014. The average annual percentage change (APC) in residents was-47.36%(P < 0.05). The space-time permutation clustering analysis revealed a temporal and spatial clustering of schistosomiasis prevalence from 2009 to 2014 in residents, cattle, and snails, with 3,2 and 1 clustering areas, respectively, all distributed in Poyang Lake Region. A similar declining trend of schistosomiasis prevalence was found in residents, snails and cattle in Yunnan during 2004-2013, from 2.49%,0.70% and 3.76% in 2004 to no infection in residents and snails and 0.02% in cattle in 2013. The APC in residents was-49.17%(P < 0.05). There was a temporal and spatial clustering of schistosomiasis prevalence during 2004-2013 in residents, cattle, and snails, with 2,2 and 6 clustering areas, respectively.

A declining trend of schistosomiasis prevalence is shown in lake-type endemic areas in Jiangxi during 2009-2014 and in mountainous endemic areas in Yunnan during 2004-2013. The retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics reveal a clustering of schistosomiasis in humans, cattle, and snails, suggesting its applicability in analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution of schistosomiasis.