Risk factors for post-ERCP cholecystitis: a single-center retrospective study.
Jun Cao1, Chunyan Peng1, Xiwei Ding1
1Department of Gastroenterology, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, The Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School, Nanjing, China.
BMC Gastroenterology
|August 24, 2018
Summary
Identifying risk factors for post-ERCP cholecystitis (PEC) is crucial. History of pancreatitis, chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder opacification, biliary stent placement, and high leukocyte counts predict PEC occurrence.
Area of Science:
- Gastroenterology
- Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography (ERCP)
- Biliary Tract Diseases
Background:
- Post-ERCP cholecystitis (PEC) is a known complication.
- Risk factors for PEC have not been well-defined.
- Understanding these factors is essential for patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and characterize the risk factors associated with post-ERCP cholecystitis (PEC).
- To develop a predictive model for PEC risk.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 2672 patients undergoing ERCP.
- Multivariate analysis to identify significant risk factors.
- Development of a prognostic nomogram for PEC risk prediction.
Main Results:
- The incidence of PEC was 1.35% (36 patients).
- Significant risk factors identified: history of acute pancreatitis, chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder opacification, biliary duct metallic stent placement, and pre-ERCP high leukocyte count.
- The prediction model showed an AUC of 0.85.
Conclusions:
- History of pancreatitis, chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder opacification, biliary stent placement, and high leukocyte count are significant predictors of PEC.
- A validated nomogram can estimate PEC risk, aiding in prophylactic measure implementation.
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