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Superstition predicts perception of illusory control.

Oren Griffiths1, Noor Shehabi2, Robin A Murphy3

  • 1School of Psychology, Flinders University, Bedford Park, South Australia, Australia.

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People prone to superstitious beliefs exhibit an illusion of causality, overestimating their control. This cognitive bias, linked to how individuals weigh events, was identified in a button-pressing experiment.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Social Psychology

Background:

  • Superstitious beliefs are prevalent but their underlying cognitive mechanisms remain poorly understood.
  • Existing research lacks laboratory models to investigate the formation of superstitious beliefs.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the cognitive mechanisms behind superstitious beliefs using a controlled laboratory experiment.
  • To examine the relationship between individual differences in superstitious beliefs and the illusion of causality.

Main Methods:

  • A laboratory analogue task was developed where participants pressed a button to observe a light.
  • The button press and light illumination had no objective contingency, creating a situation to measure the illusion of causality.
  • Participants completed a novel Superstitious Beliefs Questionnaire, mood assessments, and a self-rated locus of control measure.

Main Results:

  • A majority of participants demonstrated an illusion of causality, perceiving a link between their action and the outcome.
  • The magnitude of this illusion was positively correlated with higher scores on the Superstitious Beliefs Questionnaire.
  • No significant association was found between the illusion of causality and mood or locus of control.

Conclusions:

  • Individual differences in superstitious beliefs predict the tendency to experience an illusion of causality.
  • This suggests a cognitive bias in causal reasoning, specifically overweighting conjunctive events, underlies superstitious thinking.