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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Biogeography
  • Climate Change Biology

Background:

  • Ecological theory often prioritizes biotic interactions over abiotic factors in determining species' lower elevational range limits.
  • Species with narrow environmental tolerances may persist despite competition if strong environmental gradients are present.
  • Understanding the interplay between biotic and abiotic factors is crucial for predicting extinction risk under climate change.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relative importance of biotic interactions (competition) and abiotic factors (elevation, climate) in setting the lower elevational range limit of *Plethodon shenandoah*.
  • To assess the potential impact of projected climate change on the distribution of *Plethodon shenandoah*.

Main Methods:

  • Field sampling along multiple transects spanning the elevational range limit of *Plethodon shenandoah*.
  • Recording site and climate covariates, including cloud base heights derived from regional climate data and datalogger observations.
  • Utilizing a two-species conditional occupancy model to account for detection probability heterogeneity and relate occupancy to environmental conditions.

Main Results:

  • Elevation, not interspecific competition, was found to be the primary factor strongly correlated with the lower elevational range boundary of *Plethodon shenandoah*.
  • The species' lower range limit is sensitive to climate variables, indicating that projected climate change will directly impact its distribution.
  • Models that simultaneously consider species interactions and habitat variables, while accommodating detection biases, are essential for accurate range limit assessments.

Conclusions:

  • The assumption that biotic interactions solely determine lower elevational range limits may not hold for all species, particularly those sensitive to abiotic gradients.
  • Projected climate change, specifically shifts in cloud elevations, poses a direct threat to the high-elevation habitats of *Plethodon shenandoah*.
  • Future research on species range limits should incorporate both biotic and abiotic factors, alongside robust statistical methods to address detection biases.