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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Feb 6, 2026

Classical Short-Delay Eyeblink Conditioning in One-Year-Old Children

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Published on: September 1, 2018

The Truth of Conditional Assertions.

Geoffrey P Goodwin¹, P N Johnson-Laird^2,3

¹Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania.

Cognitive Science

|August 31, 2018

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

People often misunderstand conditional statements, but new tasks show they consider all possibilities, aligning with mental model theory. This study reveals common errors in probability estimation for conditional logic.

Keywords:

Conditionals Defective truth table Mental models Possibilities Suppositional theory de Finetti truth table

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Area of Science:

Cognitive Psychology
Logic and Reasoning

Background:

Standard interpretations of conditional statements (If A then C) present differing views on logical possibilities.
Some theories suggest individuals consider three cases (A and C, not-A and not-C, not-A and C), while others believe only A and C are relevant.

Purpose of the Study:

To resolve discrepancies in understanding conditional statement logic.
To investigate how individuals evaluate the truth of conditionals in different scenarios.

Main Methods:

Development of novel tasks: the 'collective' truth task and conditional prediction tasks.
Participants judged the simultaneous truth of assertion sets and conditional predictions about future events.

Main Results:

Results consistently supported the three-case possibility model of conditional reasoning.
A significant violation of probability calculus was observed, with summed probabilities exceeding 200%.

Conclusions:

The findings corroborate the mental model theory of conditionals.
Individuals' reasoning about conditionals aligns with considering all logical possibilities, despite potential probability misjudgments.