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Dynamic amplification of extreme precipitation sensitivity
Ji Nie1, Adam H Sobel2,3, Daniel A Shaevitz3
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; jinie@pku.edu.cn.
Summary
Extreme precipitation events intensify faster than atmospheric moisture increases, a phenomenon known as super-Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. This amplified response is driven by dynamic atmospheric circulation changes, not just thermodynamic effects.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Science
- Climate Science
- Extreme Weather Events
Background:
- Climate change predictions for precipitation extremes often rely on the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation, suggesting extremes scale with atmospheric moisture.
- This hypothesis overlooks potential alterations in atmospheric circulation dynamics that influence precipitation intensity.
- Increased atmospheric moisture can enhance latent heating, potentially strengthening large-scale ascent and leading to precipitation increases exceeding CC scaling.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the phenomenon of super-CC scaling in extreme precipitation events.
- To examine the role of atmospheric circulation changes in amplifying precipitation extremes.
- To analyze the contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic factors to precipitation scaling.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Column Quasi-Geostrophic (CQG) method to analyze a 2015 Texas extreme precipitation event.
- Simulated analogous events under varying surface temperatures ([Formula: see text]) with consistent adiabatic quasigeostrophic forcing.
- Differentiated between thermodynamic contributions (moisture increase) and dynamic contributions (circulation changes).
Main Results:
- Precipitation events exhibited super-CC scaling, indicating intensification rates higher than predicted by moisture increases alone.
- Dynamic contributions, stemming from enhanced ascent due to increased latent heating, were identified as the primary driver of super-CC scaling.
- The importance of dynamic contributions increased with surface temperature ([Formula: see text]).
Conclusions:
- Thermodynamic effects (increased water vapor) largely followed the CC relation as expected.
- Dynamic processes, particularly changes in large-scale ascent, significantly amplify precipitation extremes beyond CC scaling.
- While secondary, alterations in the vertical structure of moisture and diabatic heating slightly reduced the overall rate of increase.
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