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A continental system for forecasting bird migration.

Benjamin M Van Doren1, Kyle G Horton2

  • 1Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. benjamin.vandoren@zoo.ox.ac.uk.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Billions of birds migrate annually, but tracking them is difficult. A new continental-scale forecast system uses 23 years of data to predict bird migration intensity with high accuracy, aiding conservation efforts.

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Area of Science:

  • Ornithology
  • Ecology
  • Atmospheric Science

Background:

  • Seasonal animal migrations are vital ecological events, yet monitoring is challenging due to unpredictable movement patterns.
  • Understanding and predicting bird migration intensity is crucial for conservation and mitigating human-wildlife conflicts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a continental-scale bird migration forecast system.
  • To identify key atmospheric conditions influencing bird migration intensity.
  • To provide accurate forecasts of avian migratory movements.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized 23 years of spring bird migration observations.
  • Developed models to associate atmospheric conditions with migration intensity.
  • Validated forecast performance for events 1 to 7 days in advance.

Main Results:

  • Models explained up to 81% of variation in migration intensity across the United States (0-3000m altitude).
  • Forecasts for 1-7 days in advance explained 62% to 76% of migration intensity variation.
  • Peak nightly avian migratory movements likely exceed 500 million individuals in the US.

Conclusions:

  • The developed bird migration forecast system offers unprecedented continental-scale prediction capabilities.
  • Forecasts can significantly reduce bird collisions with infrastructure (buildings, airplanes, wind turbines).
  • The system will enhance various monitoring efforts and public engagement in avian conservation.