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Evolutionary Rescue in a Linearly Changing Environment: Limits on Predictability.

Maria E Orive¹, Robert D Holt², Michael Barfield²

¹Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, 1200 Sunnyside Ave., Lawrence, KS, 66045, USA. morive@ku.edu.

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

|September 16, 2018

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Predicting evolutionary rescue during continuous environmental change is challenging. Larger populations and sexual reproduction improve persistence, while rapid change increases extinction risk.

Keywords:

Clonality Environmental change Evolutionary rescue Extinction Individual-based model

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Area of Science:

Evolutionary biology
Ecology
Population genetics

Background:

Environmental change poses a threat to population persistence.
Adaptive evolutionary rescue is a potential mechanism for species survival.
Predicting the success of evolutionary rescue is crucial given increasing environmental change.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the predictability of evolutionary rescue under continuous environmental change.
To examine factors influencing population persistence in a shifting environment.

Main Methods:

Utilized an individual-based simulation model and an analytic model.
Simulated populations experiencing a linearly changing environmental optimum for a phenotypic trait.
Analyzed population genetics, population size, reproductive strategy, and rate of environmental change.

Main Results:

Population genetics at the onset of change did not predict persistence, unlike in sudden change scenarios.
Larger populations had a higher probability of persistence due to greater genetic variation.
Increased rate of environmental change consistently decreased the probability of population persistence.
Partially clonal populations were more vulnerable to extinction than fully sexual populations under continuous change.

Conclusions:

Predicting evolutionary rescue in continuously changing environments is difficult and differs from sudden change scenarios.
Population size and sexual reproduction are key factors for adaptation and persistence.
Continuous adaptation requires ongoing generation of novel genetic variation, highlighting the limitations of clonal reproduction in such contexts.