Possible predictive role of electrical risk score on transcatheter aortic valve replacement outcomes in older...

To evaluate the predicative power of the electrical risk score (ERS), a noninvasive and inexpensive test obtained by means of a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), in a cohort of elderly patients who had undergone transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR).

Survivors and non-survivors after TAVR at 1-year follow-up were compared in respect to the pre-procedural ERS as well as a number of other clinical and instrumental variables. ERS is composed of seven simple ECG markers: heart rate (>75 bpm); QRS duration (>110 ms); left ventricular hypertrophy (Sokolow-Lyon criteria); delayed QRS transition zone (≥ V4); frontal QRS-T angle (>90°); long QT_Bazett (>450 ms for men and >460 in women) or JT_Bazett (330 ms for men and >340 ms for women); and long Tpeak to Tend interval (T_p-e) (>89 ms). The trial was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT03145376.

A total of 40 patients were evaluated. During the follow-up, the all-cause mortality rate was 25% (ten patients) with 15% of cardiovascular death (six patients). The ERS was the strongest predictor of all-cause (odds ratio 3.73, 95% CI: 1.44-9.66, P<0.05) or cardiovascular (odds ratio 3.95, 95% CI: 1.09-14.27, P<0.05) mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that ERS had the widest significant sensitivity-specificity area under the curve (AUC) predicting all-cause (AUC: 0.855, P<0.05) or cardiovascular mortality (AUC: 0.908, P<0.05).

ERS seems to be a useful noninvasive tool able to stratify the risk of mortality in 1-year follow-up of TAVR patients. These findings, however, require larger trials to be confirmed.