Population-based priors in cardiac model personalisation for consistent parameter estimation in heterogeneous...

Personalised cardiac models are a virtual representation of the patient heart, with parameter values for which the simulation fits the available clinical measurements. Models usually have a large number of parameters while the available data for a given patient are typically limited to a small set of measurements; thus, the parameters cannot be estimated uniquely. This is a practical obstacle for clinical applications, where accurate parameter values can be important. Here, we explore an original approach based on an algorithm called Iteratively Updated Priors (IUP), in which we perform successive personalisations of a full database through maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, where the prior probability at an iteration is set from the distribution of personalised parameters in the database at the previous iteration. At the convergence of the algorithm, estimated parameters of the population lie on a linear subspace of reduced (and possibly sufficient) dimension in which for each case of the database, there is a (possibly unique) parameter value for which the simulation fits the measurements. We first show how this property can help the modeller select a relevant parameter subspace for personalisation. In addition, since the resulting priors in this subspace represent the population statistics in this subspace, they can be used to perform consistent parameter estimation for cases where measurements are possibly different or missing in the database, which we illustrate with the personalisation of a heterogeneous database of 811 cases.