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Individual Uncertainty About Longevity
Brigitte Dormont1, Anne-Laure Samson2, Marc Fleurbaey3
1Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL University, LEDa, Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775, Paris Cedex 16, France.
Demography
|September 23, 2018
Summary
Individuals possess significant uncertainty about their own longevity, impacting health behaviors. This subjective uncertainty about longevity influences lifestyle choices, promoting healthier habits.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Demography
- Health Economics
Background:
- Understanding individual perceptions of longevity is crucial for public policy.
- Subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL) are key metrics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess individual uncertainty about longevity using survey data.
- To analyze factors influencing this uncertainty and its impact on behavior.
Main Methods:
- Survey of 3,331 French individuals recording subjective survival probabilities.
- Econometric analysis to model uncertainty and its determinants.
- Calculation of SLE and SUL for each participant.
Main Results:
- Subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL) averages over 10 years for both men and women.
- Older individuals utilize private information (e.g., parental longevity) to refine their SUL.
- Increased SUL is significantly associated with a reduced probability of unhealthy lifestyles.
Conclusions:
- Individual uncertainty about longevity is substantial and influences health-related behaviors.
- Findings have implications for public policy in healthcare, retirement planning, and long-term care insurance.
- Subjective longevity perceptions play a role in risk-taking and preventative actions.
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