Accuracy of Predicted Resection Weights in Breast Reduction Surgery

Many insurance carriers continue to deny coverage for reduction mammaplasty unless a minimum amount of resected breast tissue per breast is achieved during surgery. This study investigates the accuracy of preoperative prediction that a minimum weight of 500 g can be resected and evaluates potential risk factors for not meeting this insurance requirement.

A retrospective review was performed on 445 patients with bilateral symptomatic macromastia who sought consultation for breast reduction surgery from 2007 to 2012. Women were included for analysis if they had documented predicted resection weights and underwent small-to-moderate breast reduction (< 1,000 g per side; n = 323). Relevant demographic information, mean predicted resection weight, and the mean actual resection weight were collected for analysis.

Surgeon prediction of resection weight being over 500 g had a positive predictive value of 73%. In 61 patients (19%), the predicted weights were ≥ 500 g, but the actual weights were < 500 g. Thirty percentage of these 61 patients did not meet either Schnur or minimum weight requirements. Women with a body mass index < 30 were at significantly increased odds (odds ratio, 3.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.89-7.48; P = 0.002) of not meeting the minimum weight requirement at surgery compared with patients with a body mass index ≥ 30.

The common insurance criterion of removing ≥ 500 g per breast during breast reduction surgery are not met in a distinct cohort of women who are clinically appropriate candidates. This risk is particularly increased in nonobese women possibly due to proportionately smaller breast mass compared with obese women.