Evolution of urban scaling: Evidence from Brazil

Area of Science:

• Urban Science
• Complexity Science
• Quantitative Geography

Background:

• The science of cities uses quantitative methods to understand urban phenomena.
• A key concept is universal scaling behavior in urban socioeconomic, infrastructural, and service variables.
• This study examines the universality of urban scaling in a developing country context.

Purpose of the Study:

• To extend the universality proposition of urban scaling to a developing country's urban system.
• To explore scaling exponents for over 60 variables in the Brazilian urban system.
• To investigate deviations from expected scaling and their potential causes.

Main Methods:

• Selected urban-like municipalities in Brazil using a density cut-off procedure.
• Estimated scaling exponents for over 60 socioeconomic, infrastructural, and individual basic services variables.
• Validated findings by comparing results with studies using alternative methods.

Main Results:

• Socioeconomic variables exhibited superlinear scaling with population size, as expected.
• Most infrastructure and individual basic services variables showed expected sublinear and linear scaling, respectively.
• Some infrastructural and individual basic services variables deviated from expected scaling, challenging universality.

Conclusions:

• Deviations in urban scaling may be influenced by top-down policy decisions.
• Observed trends suggest these deviations might be temporary, with systems potentially evolving towards expected scaling regimes.
• The 10-year analysis provides preliminary insights into the dynamic nature of urban scaling.