Selective Cholecystectomy: using an evidence-based prediction model to plan for cholecystectomy

Symptomatic gall stones are treated safely and efficiently with laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Conversion to open cholecystectomy may be associated with adverse outcomes. Accurate prediction of conversion should decrease the incidence of conversion and improve patient care.

The recent literature on conversion at laparoscopic cholecystectomy is reviewed to identify robust prediction models that are both internally and externally validated.

Two prediction models are identified which meet these criteria.

The Cairns Prediction Model using nomograms, is an easily applied tool predicting conversion, which is presently in use. Routine use of this tool should decrease conversion, and improve the process of patient consent.