Molecular Classification of Thyroid Nodules with Indeterminate Cytology: Development and Validation of a Highly...

Thyroid nodules can be identified in up to 68% of the population. Fine-needle aspiration (FNA) cytopathology classifies 20%-30% of nodules as indeterminate, and these are often referred for surgery due to the risk of malignancy. However, histological postsurgical reports indicate that up to 84% of cases are benign, highlighting a high rate of unnecessary surgeries. We sought to develop and validate a microRNA (miRNA)-based thyroid molecular classifier for precision endocrinology (mir-THYpe) with both high sensitivity and high specificity, to be performed on the FNA cytology smear slide with no additional FNA. The expression of 96 miRNA candidates from 39 benign/39 malignant thyroid samples, (indeterminate on FNA) was analyzed to develop and train the mir-THYpe algorithm. For validation, an independent set of 58 benign/37 malignant FNA smear slides (also classified as indeterminate) was used. In the training set, with a 10-fold cross-validation using only 11 miRNAs, the mir-THYpe test reached 89.7% sensitivity, 92.3% specificity, 90.0% negative predictive value and 92.1% positive predictive value. In the FNA smear slide validation set, the mir-THYpe test reached 94.6% sensitivity, 81.0% specificity, 95.9% negative predictive value, and 76.1% positive predictive value. Bayes' theorem shows that the mir-THYpe test performs satisfactorily in a wide range of cancer prevalences. The presented data and comparison with other commercially available tests suggest that the mir-THYpe test can be considered for use in clinical practice to support a more informed clinical decision for patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules and potentially reduce the rates of unnecessary thyroid surgeries.