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Structural Changes in Provincial Emission Transfers within China.

Chen Pan1, Glen P Peters2, Robbie M Andrew2

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China's provincial emission transfers shifted from export-driven to investment-driven between 2007-2012. Construction and manufacturing emissions increased due to investment, highlighting policy and economic interaction impacts.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Economics
  • Climate Policy

Background:

  • China's provinces implement national climate policies, leading to inter-regional emission transfers.
  • In the 2000s, emission transfers were unbalanced, driven by demand in developed eastern provinces.
  • Shifts in industrial structure and plateauing exports suggest changes in emission transfer patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate structural changes in China's provincial emission transfers from 2002 to 2012.
  • To analyze the drivers and sectoral components of emission transfers.
  • To understand the implications for climate policy and inter-provincial economic relations.

Main Methods:

  • Construction of a Chinese provincial multiyear, multisector model (multi-regional input-output model).
  • Analysis of emission transfers between 2002 and 2012.
  • Sectoral analysis of emission sources.

Main Results:

  • International-export-associated emission transfers decreased by 17% from 2007-2012 after a 262% increase in 2002-2007.
  • Investment drove 99% of the increase in emission transfers during 2007-2012.
  • Construction (East/West) and technology-intensive manufacturing (Center) were key sectors for investment-driven transfers.

Conclusions:

  • Emission transfers in China have shifted towards being investment-dominated.
  • Committed emissions from investment require attention in climate policy.
  • The interaction between provincial climate policies and economic ties is crucial.