Assessing fire hazard potential and its main drivers in Mazandaran province, Iran: a data-driven approach

Fires are a major disturbance to forest ecosystems and socioeconomic activities in Mazandaran province, northern Iran, particularly in the Hyrcanian forest sub-region. Mapping the spatial distribution of fire hazard levels and the most important influencing factors is crucial to enhance fire management strategies. In this research, MODIS hotspots were used to represent fire events covering Mazandaran Province over the period 2000-2016. We applied the ecological niche theory through the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method to estimate fire hazard potential and the association with different anthropogenic and biophysical conditions, by applying different modeling approaches (heuristic, permutation, and jackknife metrics). Our results show that higher fire likelihood is related to density of settlements, distance to roads up to 3 km and to land cover types associated with agricultural activities, indicating a strong influence of human activities in fire occurrence in the region. To decrease fire hazard, prevention activities related to population awareness and the adjustment of farming practices need to be considered.