Risk Prediction of Prostate Cancer with Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms and Prostate Specific Antigen

Combined information on single nucleotide polymorphisms and prostate specific antigen offers opportunities to improve the performance of screening by risk stratification. We aimed to predict the risk of prostate cancer based on prostate specific antigen together with single nucleotide polymorphism information.

We performed a prospective study of 20,575 men with prostate specific antigen testing and 4,967 with a polygenic risk score for prostate cancer based on 66 single nucleotide polymorphisms from the Finnish population based screening trial of prostate cancer and 5,269 samples of 7 single nucleotide polymorphisms from the Finnish prostate cancer DNA study. A Bayesian predictive model was built to estimate the risk of prostate cancer by sequentially combining genetic information with prostate specific antigen compared with prostate specific antigen alone in study subjects limited to those with prostate specific antigen 4 ng/ml or above.

The posterior odds of prostate cancer based on 7 single nucleotide polymorphisms together with the prostate specific antigen level ranged from 3.7 at 4 ng/ml, 14.2 at 6 and 40.7 at 8 to 98.2 at 10 ng/ml. The ROC AUC was elevated to 88.8% (95% CI 88.6-89.1) for prostate specific antigen combined with the risk score based on 7 single nucleotide polymorphisms compared with 70.1% (95% CI 69.6-70.7) for prostate specific antigen alone. It was further escalated to 96.7% (95% CI 96.5-96.9) when all prostate cancer susceptibility polygenes were combined.

Expedient use of multiple genetic variants together with information on prostate specific antigen levels better predicts the risk of prostate cancer than prostate specific antigen alone and allows for higher prostate specific antigen cutoffs. Combined information also provides a basis for risk stratification which can be used to optimize the performance of prostate cancer screening.