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Mapping and predicting forest loss in a Sumatran tiger landscape from 2002 to 2050
Erin E Poor1, Yang Shao2, Marcella J Kelly1
1Virginia Tech, Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, 100 Cheatham Hall, 310 W. Campus Drive, Blacksburg, VA 24060, USA.
Journal of Environmental Management
|October 28, 2018
Summary
Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) habitat in Riau is rapidly declining due to deforestation for plantations. Conservation efforts must focus on key forest areas like Tesso Nilo to maintain connectivity for tiger survival.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Conservation Biology
- Remote Sensing
Background:
- Riau Province, Sumatra, historically supported significant Sumatran tiger populations.
- Current deforestation rates are extremely high, reducing natural forest cover to ~18%, primarily for agriculture (oil palm, rubber, acacia).
- Remaining forests in Bukit Tigapuluh National Park and Rimbang Baling Wildlife Reserve are crucial for tiger populations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To map land cover changes in Riau from 2002-2016 using Landsat imagery.
- To predict future forest-to-plantation conversion from 2016-2050 using a neural network model.
- To analyze landscape connectivity for Sumatran tigers based on potential dispersal distances.
Main Methods:
- Maximum likelihood classification of Landsat imagery for land cover mapping.
- Multilayer perceptron neural network for predicting deforestation.
- Connectivity analysis using a 100 km dispersal threshold.
Main Results:
- Land cover maps achieved 80-90% accuracy.
- Significant forest loss is predicted in Tesso Nilo and western Riau by 2050 under current deforestation trends.
- Tesso Nilo and the Rimbang Baling-Bukit Tigapuluh corridor are vital for maintaining landscape connectivity.
Conclusions:
- Urgent conservation and rehabilitation efforts are needed in Riau, particularly in Tesso Nilo and adjacent areas.
- Focusing on forests near plantations in accessible (flat) areas is essential for maintaining habitat connectivity.
- Securing these areas is critical for the long-term survival of Sumatran tigers and other endemic species.
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