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Changes in Physical Functioning as Short-Term Predictors of Mortality.
1Office of Population Research, Princeton University, New Jersey.
Summary
Changes in physical functioning predict mortality risk. Declines in performance-based measures like grip strength and walking speed, and increases in self-reported limitations, significantly increase mortality risk over four years.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Both performance-based and self-reported physical functioning measures predict mortality.
- Limited research has explored the predictive value of changes in these functioning measures for mortality risk.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether 5-year changes in performance-based and self-reported physical functioning predict subsequent mortality.
- To assess the association between changes in specific functioning metrics and mortality risk.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the 2006 and 2011 waves of aging studies with mortality follow-up through 2015.
- Employed Gompertz proportional hazard models to predict mortality based on changes in performance-based tests and self-reported functioning.
Main Results:
- Incident inability to complete performance-based tests doubled subsequent 4-year mortality risk.
- A one standard deviation (SD) decline in grip strength increased 4-year mortality risk by 61%.
- A one-SD decline in walking speed or a one-SD increase in self-reported limitations each increased 4-year mortality risk by approximately 40%.
Conclusions:
- Repeated measures of physical functioning provide valuable updated insights into mortality risk.
- Changes in both performance-based and self-reported functioning are significant predictors of subsequent mortality.
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