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Changes in human footprint drive changes in species extinction risk
Moreno Di Marco1,2, Oscar Venter3, Hugh P Possingham4,5
1Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, 4072, Brisbane, QLD, Australia. moreno.dimarco@gmail.com.
Nature Communications
|November 7, 2018
Summary
Changes in human pressure significantly predict mammal extinction risk. Converting low-impact areas is the main driver, highlighting the need to integrate human footprint into conservation planning.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Conservation Biology
- Biodiversity Science
Background:
- Predicting species' responses to human pressure is crucial for conservation.
- Interactions between changing human pressure and extinction risk are understudied in modeling.
- Terrestrial Human Footprint (HFP) quantifies cumulative human pressure on ecosystems.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the relationship between changes in terrestrial human footprint (HFP) and shifts in extinction risk for mammals.
- To determine if HFP change is a significant predictor of extinction risk trends.
- To identify key drivers of extinction risk changes related to human pressure.
Main Methods:
- Quantified changes in terrestrial human footprint (HFP) across global mammal ranges.
- Analyzed correlations between HFP change and documented trends in mammal extinction risk.
- Compared the predictive power of HFP change against environmental and life-history variables.
Main Results:
- Changes in HFP over time are significantly correlated with trends in mammal extinction risk.
- HFP change demonstrated higher predictive importance for extinction risk than other factors.
- Anthropogenic conversion of areas with low HFP (below 3 out of 50) was the strongest predictor of increased extinction risk.
Conclusions:
- The terrestrial human footprint is a powerful predictor of changes in species extinction risk.
- Conservation strategies must account for the dynamic nature of human pressure and its impact on biodiversity.
- The developed framework can forecast biodiversity impacts under escalating human pressure.
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