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Quantifying reputation and success in art.

Samuel P Fraiberger1,2, Roberta Sinatra1,3,4,5, Magnus Resch6,7

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Art world success hinges on early connections. Artists gaining early access to prestigious institutions maintain high visibility, while those starting peripherally face limited opportunities and higher dropout rates, demonstrating significant path dependence in artistic careers.

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Area of Science:

  • Art history
  • Network analysis
  • Sociology of art

Background:

  • In fields where objective performance metrics are scarce, reputation and influence networks heavily dictate resource and reward access.
  • Understanding these dynamics is crucial for analyzing career progression and valuation in the art world.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of network position and early institutional access on artists' long-term career trajectories.
  • To quantify the role of prestige and network centrality in art valuation and resource allocation.

Main Methods:

  • Reconstruction of exhibition histories for 500,000 artists to map the art coexhibition network.
  • Network centrality analysis to measure institutional prestige and artists' access to venues.
  • Application of a Markov model to predict and analyze artist career paths and history dependence.

Main Results:

  • Early access to central, high-prestige institutions correlates with sustained access to top venues and lower career dropout rates.
  • Artists originating from the network periphery experience higher dropout rates and restricted access to prestigious institutions.
  • The study confirms strong path and history dependence in the valuation of artists within the art market.

Conclusions:

  • An artist's initial network position and institutional affiliations significantly shape their entire career trajectory.
  • The art world exhibits path dependence, where early opportunities heavily influence future success and valuation.
  • Network centrality serves as a key indicator of institutional prestige and impacts artists' long-term career sustainability.